Regional Oil Benchmarks Surge on Shipping Fears
Oil prices in the Gulf have surged sharply as escalating tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel fuel concerns about the security of critical shipping routes. The market reaction has driven Murban crude—the UAE’s main export oil grade—above many global benchmarks, sparking questions about whether UAE residents could soon see higher fuel prices at the pump.
Murban and Other Gulf Crudes Hit New Highs
During trading on March 5 and 6, Murban crude climbed to a government selling price of $112.55 per barrel, reaching one of the highest levels seen globally this year. Other UAE oil grades also followed suit: Lower Zakum rose to $112.55, Umm Shaif reached $112.05, and Upper Zakum hit $108.90 per barrel. Regional oil prices soared as Oman crude touched $100.31 per barrel for May delivery and Kuwait Export Crude jumped to nearly $98.50.
Strait of Hormuz at Center of Risk Premium
A key factor behind the price spike is the growing risk to the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil shipping channel. Around 20 million barrels—about 20 percent of the world’s daily oil supply—pass through this narrow waterway. With heightened tensions and warnings from Gulf energy ministers that disruptions could force production halts, traders have added a “risk premium” to Gulf oil, pushing prices even higher.
Widening Gap with US Oil Prices
This surge has created a significant gap between Gulf and US oil benchmarks. While Gulf crudes are well above $100 per barrel, the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has remained much lower, around $76–$79 per barrel. Analysts say this reflects regional supply risks more than a global oil shortage.
Will UAE Petrol Prices Rise?
For now, UAE fuel prices have not yet reflected the latest surge. Petrol prices in the UAE are set monthly by the Fuel Price Committee. Rates for March 2026 were locked in before the recent rally—Super 98 petrol stands at Dh2.59 per litre, Special 95 at Dh2.48, and diesel at Dh2.72. If Gulf oil prices remain high, the next monthly review could bring higher fuel costs, but any increase would likely be gradual, as retail prices are based on monthly global averages rather than sudden market swings.
For UAE motorists, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether today’s surging oil prices translate into pricier fill-ups at the pump.
